Market Open · pre-US-open
Market Open — Wed, Oct 14, 2026
CPI day · privacy coins bid (ZEC, XMR) · STRK −12% into tomorrow's unlock
Tape as of 7:40am CT (12:40 UTC) · Hyperliquid perps & HIP-3 · 24h
📣The slate
- CPI is the only thing that matters today. Everyone is flat into it.
- ETF money came back yesterday. One day does not make a trend.
- Privacy is the trade. Zcash and Monero green, everything else beige.
- Starknet round-tripped the pump into the unlock. Called it.
- Oil ripping again. Gold and silver dumped.
- SpaceX getting sold, Meta getting bought.
- Saylor bought the smallest bag of the year.
- Memes asleep, CASHCAT excepted.
📉The tape
Flat, small, waiting. BTC −0.5%, ETH −0.6%, SOL and HYPE −0.3%. BTC did $2.1B of Hyperliquid volume and went nowhere. ZEC +3.6% is the only major with a pulse.
| Perp | Price | 24h | OI | Funding/8h |
|---|
| BTC | 82,765 | −0.51% | $3.14B | 0.0085% |
| ETH | 2,484 | −0.58% | $2.68B | 0.0015% |
| SOL | 106.01 | −0.28% | $637M | 0.0072% |
| HYPE | 80.89 | −0.33% | $1.64B | 0.0100% |
| ZEC | 1,226 | +3.56% | $597M | 0.0100% |
💥 REKT 24h ~$140M~58% longstraders: n/aper-coin: n/a
Liquidations: ~$140M in 24h, ~58% longs (single source; Coinglass unreachable this run). After $771M through Monday's dip under 82K, that is nothing. Funding sub-neutral on BTC and ETH: nobody is levered either way into the print.
Mood: coiled. Leverage left on Monday and hasn't come back. CPI decides the direction and the bears have had three weeks to load up and still can't break 81.
🏦Macro
September CPI at 8:30 ET and futures edged up on the release (single source); the print itself was not in our searches at send time. Oil is not waiting for anyone: WTI $94.62 (+3.2%), Brent $103.45 (+1.3%), natgas +3.2%, the Iran war still has no off-ramp and Trump already said prices stay up until after the midterms. Gold $4,109 (−1.8%) and silver $57.92 (−3.8%) got dumped, dollar index −0.45% and they still fell. Banks flagged the Treasury sell-off as a dealmaking drag, so yields are still the problem, and the Fed sits on its hands until Oct 28 regardless of what the PPI and retail sales say tomorrow.
📈Stocks
| Name | Price | 24h |
|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,782 | −0.21% |
| Nasdaq-100 | 30,395 | −0.19% |
| Nikkei | 67,639 | −0.18% |
| Korea (EWY) | 163.11 | −0.18% |
Indices: nothing. S&P parked at 7,780 waiting on CPI, Dow soft on the banks (BofA −1.3% after a $1.2B+ money-laundering fine).
| Semis / AI | Price | 24h |
|---|
| NVDA | 226.32 | +0.85% |
| AMD | 593.66 | +1.80% |
| AVGO | 353.67 | +1.08% |
| MU | 941.77 | +0.05% |
| SNDK | 1,437 | +1.26% |
| SK Hynix | 1,063 | −1.58% |
| META | 756.47 | +3.06% |
| ORCL | 140.06 | +3.33% |
| MSFT | 544.20 | +0.26% |
| GOOGL | 356.87 | +0.56% |
| CRWV | 72.49 | −5.86% |
| NBIS | 197.55 | −2.16% |
Chips quietly bid. ASML said it can't meet demand for two years and ran +3.6% in Europe; AMD, MRVL (+2.4%), AVGO follow. META and ORCL up 3%. The neoclouds are the ones getting sold: CRWV −5.9%, NBIS −2.2%.
Defense: PLTR 207.07 (−0.1%). Asleep.
| Consumer / crypto | Price | 24h |
|---|
| HOOD | 108.53 | −0.37% |
| COIN | 179.23 | −0.71% |
| CRCL | 82.68 | −0.35% |
| MSTR | 150.66 | −2.18% |
| SPCX | 155.55 | −4.37% |
| TSLA | 372.35 | −0.53% |
Crypto equities heavy, SpaceX heavier. MSTR −2.2% while it sells stock to buy 250 BTC. SPCX −4.4% on $72M of HIP-3 volume, still 15% over the $135 IPO.
₿Bitcoin
- 82,765. Range is 81K–84K: Monday's wick to ~81K on the Korea sell-off held, 83.75K is where it keeps getting sold. Reclaim 84K and the bears are cooked.
- ETF flows (Farside): +$175.7M Tuesday (FBTC +$103M, IBIT +$66M) after −$65.4M Monday. Prior week: −$485M Wed, −$244M Thu. First real green day in a week.
- Strategy bought just 250 BTC at ~$86,194, smallest buy of 2026, partly funded by MSTR sales; now holds 848,250 at $75,444 avg. Also bought back $192M of STRC preferred.
- Positioning: OI $3.14B on Hyperliquid, funding 0.0085%. Clean. Hot CPI flushes it to 81; soft CPI and the shorts pay for 85.
🔀Alts
PONS +11.2%XMR +4.7%VVV +3.6%ZEC +3.6%PUMP +1.1%PURR +0.9%
STRK −12.1%ENA −3.9%MET −3.7%ZRO −2.9%AVAX −1.4%NEAR −1.2%
- STRK 0.0796 (−12%). Round trip. The 0.06 breakout and the "Starknet goes L1" pump ran straight into an unlock of up to 127M STRK tomorrow. Exit liquidity behavior.
- XMR 553 (+4.7%). Privacy bid is now two coins, not one. Monero and Zcash leading together on a red day is a real rotation.
- VVV 22.77 (+3.6%). Venice keeps grinding on AI-agent revenue, best non-privacy name in the CT set.
- ENA 0.202 (−3.9%). Weakest of the majors-adjacent, $27M volume, no headline. Just bleeding.
- NEAR 5.00 (−1.2%), LIT 3.29 (−0.3%), MON 0.0243 (+0.7%). Nothing to see.
🐸Memes
| Perp | Price | 24h | OI |
|---|
| CASHCAT | 0.1173 | +14.6% | $24M |
| POPCAT | 0.0467 | +3.1% | $2M |
| USELESS | 0.1694 | +1.9% | $9M |
| PUMP | 0.00499 | +1.1% | $198M |
| DOGE | 0.0838 | 0.0% | $105M |
| FARTCOIN | 0.1597 | −0.5% | $36M |
| PENGU | 0.00769 | −0.6% | $10M |
| kBONK | 0.00315 | −1.3% | $8M |
Memes asleep. Nothing moved more than 1.5% except CASHCAT (+14.6%) and POPCAT. DOGE flat on $10M volume. Disgusting levels of boredom.
Launchpads: PUMP +1.1% with $198M OI, the most crowded meme-adjacent trade on the board. Bonk.fun reportedly passed pump.fun on launches and revenue (single source); pump.fun keeps the buyback. Trenches: dead until BTC picks a side.
🛡Zcash
- 1,226 (+3.6%). Green on a red tape again. Alarmingly strong. The 1,200 floor has held every flush this month.
- OI $597M, funding 0.01% (neutral), $240M volume, more than SOL. Spot-led, not a leverage pump.
- Catalysts: Zcon7 Oct 27–29 and Zcash turns 10 on Oct 28. Shielded supply ~30%. Monero ripping alongside it means the privacy narrative is back on the TL.
- Reclaim 1,260 and the 1,300s open. Lose 1,200 and it's a range trade again.
💧HYPE / Hyperliquid
- 80.89 (−0.3%), funding 0.01%, OI $1.64B. Still drifting lower since the Oct 6 unlock. No bid, no panic.
- HIP-3 carries the venue: SK Hynix $259M, S&P $223M, NDX $209M, SanDisk $207M, MU $149M, WTI $146M, NVDA $140M in 24h. Stock perps do more volume than SOL.
- Medium-term catalysts: Payward (Kraken) US-entry talks, Kalshi's pending HYPE futures. Nothing new dated this week.
🤖AI & pre-IPO
- OpenAI perp 1,631 (−2.3%). Still bleeding after last week's revenue reset. Anthropic perp 2,020 (−1.0%), S-1 confidential, roadshow talk for November.
- SPCX 155.55 (−4.4%), listed since June at $135. Biggest loser among the mega names on HIP-3.
- Chips: ASML says demand outruns supply for two years. AMD +1.8%, NVDA +0.9%, ARM +1.3%, INTC +1.1%. Neoclouds (CRWV, NBIS) the weak link.
- META +3.1% leads big tech into earnings season; MSFT and GOOGL report Oct 28.
🗞Headlines
- CPI day — September print at 8:30 ET; futures edged up after the release (single source). Verdict: relief.
- ASML can't meet demand for two years — +3.6% in Europe. The AI capex trade isn't dead. Verdict: bullish.
- BofA fined $1.2B+ over money-laundering controls, stock −1.3%; banks say the Treasury sell-off hurts dealmaking. Verdict: noise.
- Strategy's smallest buy of 2026 — 250 BTC, funded by selling MSTR. The bid is shrinking. Verdict: bearish.
- ETFs flip green — +$175.7M Tuesday after a −$1.2B week. Verdict: one day.
- STRK unlock tomorrow — up to 127M tokens; the pump already round-tripped. Verdict: told you.
- KOSPI slump dragged BTC to 81K Monday and Tom Lee warned equity margin calls hit crypto holders. Verdict: watch Seoul.
- Robinhood × Crypto.com event contracts — prediction-market revenue up 10x YoY to $156M last quarter. Verdict: HOOD's best business.
📅Calendar (ET)
- Wed 10/148:30 CPI (Sep) · BAC, MS Q3 · ASML Q3 · AU jobs tonight
- Thu 10/158:30 PPI, retail sales, jobless claims, Philly Fed · TSMC Q3 · STRK unlock
- Fri 10/16Options expiry
- Wed 10/21Tesla Q3
- 10/27–29Zcon7, Cancún · Zcash turns 10 on 10/28
- Wed 10/282:00 FOMC · MSFT, GOOGL Q3
Sources